THE RUSSIA–UKRAINE WAR AND THE COLLAPSE OF DIPLOMACY

Chuka Johnny Chukwuka

Department of Public Administration, DLI of University of Lagos

Abstract

This article explores the failure of diplomacy during the Russia–Ukraine war, probing both the proximate ruptures in negotiation and the deeper structural forces that undercut diplomatic possibility. The research problem centers on understanding why repeated diplomatic engagements have failed to prevent escalation or achieve meaningful settlement, even as global actors have committed to normative frameworks of dialogue, mediation, and international order. The analysis unfolds in three stages. First, it reconstructs the major diplomatic efforts – from the Minsk processes to the early 2022 ceasefire talks – highlighting how negotiations were undermined by asymmetrical war aims, mistrust, and incompatible red lines. Second, it interrogates structural constraints: competing geopolitical interests (notably by NATO, the EU, and the United States), the logic of coercive diplomacy, and the role of international institutions constrained by great-power rivalries. Third, it assesses the global repercussions: how the collapse of diplomacy in thes conflict erodes norms of interstate negotiation, exacerbates polarization in world politics, and creates a precedent for conflict as a first resort. The article showed that the failure is not simply a matter of bad faith or miscalculation but reflects a deeper crisis in diplomatic architecture under conditions of asymmetric power and existential stakes. Finally, it offers reflections on whether and how a path back to diplomacy might yet reopen, and what lessons this case holds for managing future high-stakes conflicts.

Keywords: Russia–Ukraine War, International Negotiations, Conflict Resolution, Minsk Agreements, Collapse of Diplomacy.